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TOR150 — Testing The Assumptions Of The Social Sector With Chris Blattman Of The University of Chicago

Chris Blattman

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I’m having a hard time believing that we’ve made it to episode 150, here on the Terms of Reference Podcast.I’m grateful you’ve taken the time to join me on this journey and I hope you’ll stick around and, more importantly, join in the conversation. But even more difficult for me to believe is that I feel like we’re still just getting started and there is so much to learn from the experts we have on the show and the experiences they bring to the table. And, today’s guest, Professor Chris Blattman, is no exception. Chris is the Ramalee E. Pearson Professor of Global Conflict Studies at The University of Chicago, in the Harris School of Public Policy, as well as a research associate at National Bureau of Economic Research, among many other things. He’s a heavy weight in the world of understanding what works – and more importantly what doesn’t – in aid and development. As you’ll hear on the show, Chris thinks he’s a professor because he was a failed development professional. This is actually a lucky turn for the rest of us because he is a critical voice in the growing R&D community focused on the development and aid sector. You’ll hear us talk about how research finds its way into practice and how we learned that microfinance doesn’t work to alleviate poverty.  We also discuss why you can’t test programs and programming, but rather you have to test the assumptions those programs are built on, in order to find out what works. We round out our discussion on what the future of the social sector could look like over the next five years. You can connect with Chris here: http://chrisblattman.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrisblattman

IN TOR 150 YOU’LL LEARN ABOUT

  • What a top economics researcher currently thinks about development, impact and poverty alleviation
  • The importance of a link to Academia, “the R&D of aid and development”
  • How poverty and conflict is more complicated than it looks, but how old approaches (such as education) are still worth researching
  • The value and expectation of long-term impact studies
  • New ideas on how to evaluate and implement cash transfers

OUR CONVERSATION FEATURES THE FOLLOWING

Names:

  • University of Chicago
  • Columbia University
  • Patrick Fine, FHI 360
  • Annie Duflo, Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA)
  • USAID
  • George W. Bush, Administration
  • Marginal Revolution (Blog)
  • National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
  • Social Science Research Network (SSRN)
  • Twitter

Topics:

  • Aid and Development Research, R&D, Innovation
  • Violence, Conflict, War, Intervention, Violence Rehabilitation
  • At-risk young population, Gangs, Gang Violence
  • Economics of Violence
  • Cognitive Behavior Therapy
  • Poverty, Poverty Alleviation
  • Microfinance
  • Education, Learning
  • Mediators
  • Evaluation, Long-Term Follow-up
  • Cash Transfers, Hyperlocal Cash Transfers
  • Technology, Internet penetration

Places

  • Liberia
  • Medellín, Colombia

EPISODE CRIB NOTES

Download an automated transcript. 02:21 Chicago professor, focusing on
  • Victims of conflict, at high-risk young men They tend to gang up People are resilient in the face of violence Violence has economic consequences, war in particular The (micro) economic consequences of war deserve more attention, research Use of cognitive behavior therapy, promising results as a violent tendency diffuser
05:05 Are you a development professional?
  • I’m a professor because I failed as a development professional Research became a natural field “Applied” by academic standards Kind of R&D for development Stephen: Patrick Fine (TOR 139) emphasizes the need for R&D in the development It is challenging, but academia makes the work possible Academia links with field work Could not say a paper was applied straightforward into field practice But the accumulation of knowledge and question do shift the conversation It’s also fodder for broader literature that does inform practice The body of work, which is massive, influences in unexpected, almost untraceable ways Some subjects are more difficult to dissect (poverty alleviation) Others are easier to obtain evidence to
10:13 IPArtners
  • (IPA’s Annie Duflo, TOR 105) What does it mean to be poor, what to alleviate it Then, what are the available strategies, and what is the evidence for them There’s smart people looking it up everywhere Innovations are often thought as broad solutions, even if the problem or the assumptions are not clear Microfinance: let’s give people access to capital, see what happens Turns out there are social benefits, but not on program ROI Current status of microfinance evidence is not sound It has benefits, but ultimately it’s not alleviating poverty More poor people with microwaves Research agendas are not successful if they test programs. They have to test assumptions underlying programs
15:28 What’s the difference?
  • Liberia, violence rehabilitation Expensive On a program for peace education “Why should I evaluate this?” “I’ll get you a jeep if you do.” “Oh.. ok then.” Training people into peace. The assumption being all it takes for a violent person is a class But, this opens the way to consider the theory of conflict Conflict is an expensive form of conflict resolution War too. Worse actually. It’s also a gamble, as the outcome may leave insurgents better or worse off People involving in conflict have asymmetric information on how powerful their enemy is Both sides believe they can win As it turns out, peace education was actually “alternative peace resolution” training It highlights informed behaviors, and how they play out Ideas about violence as a way to handle disputes become to spread The role of local mediators becomes more considered Disputes did not recede, but the training did reduce violent methods
22:11 Timelines
  • Evaluations take years, several follow-up trips There’s no other way Chris soon returned after 8 years of a cash transfer program in Ethiopia On a given project, Chris revisits the place every 18 months or so In Liberia, by 3 years, effects are dissipated. “The backlog of disputes was through” Physical conflict (over land, economics) are easier to handle than digitally. “It’s hard to identify the thing in dispute on Twitter” Sometimes just clearing out assumptions and misinformation does it, no need for extra mediation, rule of law
27:16 Immediate action
  • Medellín Colombia Hundreds of gangs are little feuds, running over neighborhoods Quick intervention ought to come with a lot of warnings But they do not negate ongoing efforts over time They actually facilitate quick learning But if the gangs have power, it takes a long time to override it “If we play it right, the situation will be corrected within 10-20 years instead of 40-50”
29:56 Big (orange) game changers
  • We must pay attention, but maybe not too much Rethink the assumption that international development action requires the US USAID is kind of focused on itself, it would be hard to think it is part of “the conversation” And the evidence for USAID programs is not unanimous There are risks and programs will be cut The W. Bush administration injected innovation into the field More departments became involved, sometimes as funds competitors If anything, the administration will increase the competition “A shake-up” that might bring new innovation
34:14 Great disruptors
  • Give directly. Hyperlocal cash transfers It’s almost unanimous the great cost\benefit of cash transfers (might be corruption free-er-ish) Organizations with old experiences with cash don’t have a good track record But the skepticism might be unfounded, to some extent Another problem is framing cash transfers as local interventions, is all they do is “throw money out of helicopters” Technologically speaking, Chris is skeptical 2000 Chris, young graduate student, was thinking how to bring wired internet to villages An Indian student suggested a low-cost solution based in radio Sounded interesting, but there were barriers When radio internet was brought into villages, leisure consumption went up, poverty stayed the same 16 years later, Chris still skeptic about the role of technology, at least on a main role in an intervention
41:21 Chris’ picks
  • Marginal Revolution Blog NBER mailing list (you can choose only development literature) Social Science Research Network mailing list “I’m not really excited about anything right now” “I am excited about more people thinking and studying gang violence”

 

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